The invasion of Ukraine by the neighbouring Russian Federation this year is a crisis of history, if this definition of such a crisis is accepted: an event affecting many people in a life-changing way, confounding all expectations, that will divert the general course of history from its pathway so far – the change will involve opportunity and danger.

Comparisons may help, with reservations. In living memory, the 1939 invasion of Poland by Nazi Germany – both Poland and Germany now embroiled in the present conflict – saw the capitulation of the capital city in 28 days, the whole army two days later. Another comparison, the initial phase of the 2003 invasion of Iraq by the United States under President George W Bush (along with Australia, Britain and Poland), “shock and awe”, was achieved in six weeks – “mission accomplished” declared.

Read more in the attachment below.